Evidence

Dated findings.

Every number below is a dated observation from a live restaurant in the founding program or a dated simulation, and the date travels with the number.

Operations

Running every night and every week.

  • Weekly payroll prepared and sent through the platform every period since June 10, 2026, each with a period receipt and duplicate-send protection.
  • Nightly POS ticket export at 10 PM with automatic gap healing; the daily shift COGS estimate runs after it.
  • Weekly review collection every Sunday night.
  • Payroll processor reports reconciled to the sent file at gross-total and employee-detail level each week.

Reconciliation

36 of 36 checks, to the cent.

Audit dated October 7, 2026, covering September 1, 2025 to August 31, 2026.

  • 36 of 36 monthly and category sales checks agreed with the annual live POS report to the cent.
  • A $578.81 discrepancy in the older order-detail archive was found and kept visible.
  • Internal order-sum reconciliation passes on 1,332 days.

Cost visibility

Cost the recipes before touching a price.

Graph snapshot September 9, verified October 16, 2026.

  • 127 sellable items, 206 recorded recipe components, 74 pack relationships examined.
  • 37 partially costed dishes carried $458,323.46 of $646,754.04 historical item subtotal, 70.9 percent, so the first job was to complete those recipe costs before touching prices.
  • 7 dishes fully costed; 83 with no priced component; $75,402.16 (11.7 percent) of POS revenue with no sellable mapping.
  • The audit produced a ranked six-step action list: confirm recipes and packs for the 37, resolve unmapped POS items, refresh and reconcile, establish a count window, complete bank tie-outs, then run a measured reversible experiment.

Forecasting

Every Chronos-2 variant beat the baseline.

  • Training record dated October 20, 2026: 14 configurations compared on the same eight seven-day origins, three seeds per learned neural family; 56 test days, July 7 to August 31, 2026.
  • Every Chronos-2 variant beat the four-week baseline on point error with tighter bands; 80 percent coverage between 80.4 and 83.9 percent. The full table is on the platform page.
  • Later rounds, October 2026: the knowledge-graph model 31.51 percent WAPE over 130 observed days in 19 weekly blocks; 728-day-context Chronos-2 30.92 percent; TimesFM 30.95 percent; retrained 728-day sales LoRA 30.94 percent, a 2.29-point improvement over its earlier run with a paired interval excluding zero; daily-issued one-day-ahead TimesFM 30.18 percent; complete weekly totals 13.73 percent WAPE over 17 weeks.
  • Gradient boosting, October 16, 2026: 30.89 percent WAPE against 39.30 percent seasonal naive on 56 days; the nominal 80 percent band covered 85.71 percent.
  • Live assistant run, July 2026: 25.56 percent against 36.95 percent on seven days; the 80 percent band covered six of seven, the 90 percent band seven of seven; two fresh-process refits produced byte-identical artifacts.

The restaurant model

Two states and the line between them.

Report dated September 11, 2026.

  • Two stable states, 205 and 448 guests a week, separated by a break-even line at 242 guests a week ($10,912 a week).
  • The 2024 to 2025 fall from the high state hindcast within 12 percent, including the absence of recovery after the shock.
  • A $1,037 weekly fixed-cost cut, or $192 a week of acquisition spend at $50 per household, moves the line below the current base.
  • Six hours a week where congestion costs referrals; the knee at 8.08 guests per server-hour.
  • Capital and timing to cross: $20,242 holding full staffing over 40 weeks; commit before the season.

Learning

1,000 pairs, 700 trained, 300 held out.

October 21 to 22, 2026.

  • 1,000 simulated restaurant and operator pairs: 200 restaurant families with five operator styles each. 700 pairs trained the policy and the world model; 300 were held out by whole family, 150 for calibration and selection, 150 for the final test. Source, protocol and checkpoints hash-pinned before the test was opened.
  • 26-week episodes over 48 controls from 233 public state and history features; three collection rounds, five policy initializations, 47,215 weekly decisions in training; a second corpus of 15,921 decisions with 175 episodes each from frozen RL, a one-week planner, a four-week planner and uniform exploration.
  • Red team: all 1,200 sealed episodes and 36,220 weekly transitions replayed exactly; every action, weekly profit, utility, cash value and terminal flag matched; cumulative profit reconciled to the change in equity. 1,522 artifact hashes, 300 checkpoint roundtrips and 2,002 tests passed.
  • World model on held-out families: served-covers error 14.51 to 12.70 percent against the inherited mechanism, interval excluding zero; weekly profit prediction error $1,705 to $1,463; local adaptation 16.64 to 12.88 percent; 80 percent four-week band coverage 65 to 99 percent.
  • Policy: the four-week planner is the executable reference and the learned policy earns each departure on held-out families. The learned hybrid finished within $3 per restaurant of the planner over 26 weeks on the 150 held-out pairs: 1,050 episodes, 26,275 operating weeks, a 450-checkpoint audit. Six policy versions, V7 through V12, each sealed before its test.
  • Assistant evaluation: zero critical failures across 39 recorded episodes on independently authored owner tasks.

Data depth

Nearly five years of tickets in one graph.

  • Ticket-level history across two POS systems from December 2021.
  • 538 observed sales dates in the current graph; 14,176 source objects and 5,517,377 observations preserved; 14,527 nodes and 103,783 edges; 88.3 percent of sales mapped to sellables.

Engineering

2,120 tests. Deterministic replay.

October 20, 2026.

  • 2,120 passing tests in the assembled repository.
  • Import contracts: 4 kept across 289 files and 1,865 dependencies.
  • Deterministic result hashes in fresh processes; a synthetic owner workflow produces an identical manifest on replay.

Changelog

Dated entries.

  1. Red team replayed all 1,200 sealed policy episodes exactly; the learned world model beat the inherited mechanism on held-out families; the learned hybrid finished within $3 per restaurant of the four-week planner.
  2. Policy campaign sealed on 1,000 simulated restaurant and operator pairs: 700 trained, 300 held out by whole family, 26-week episodes, 48 controls.
  3. Training record published: 14 configurations, three seeds, six LoRA adapters, three graph transformers; 2,120 tests pass.
  4. Recipe graph audit verified; gradient-boosting assessment recorded.
  5. Sales reconciliation audit: 36 of 36 checks to the cent.
  6. Restaurant model report: two states, tipping point at 242 guests a week.
  7. Graph snapshot: 127 sellables, 206 components, 37 dishes carrying 70.9 percent of sales.
  8. Live assistant forecast run with conformal intervals.
  9. First payroll period prepared and sent through the platform.
  10. Ticket-level export history begins in the current POS; the earlier POS history from December 2021 parsed into the graph.

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