Evidence
Dated findings.
Every number below is a dated observation from a live restaurant in the founding program or a dated simulation, and the date travels with the number.
Operations
Running every night and every week.
- Weekly payroll prepared and sent through the platform every period since June 10, 2026, each with a period receipt and duplicate-send protection.
- Nightly POS ticket export at 10 PM with automatic gap healing; the daily shift COGS estimate runs after it.
- Weekly review collection every Sunday night.
- Payroll processor reports reconciled to the sent file at gross-total and employee-detail level each week.
Reconciliation
36 of 36 checks, to the cent.
Audit dated October 7, 2026, covering September 1, 2025 to August 31, 2026.
- 36 of 36 monthly and category sales checks agreed with the annual live POS report to the cent.
- A $578.81 discrepancy in the older order-detail archive was found and kept visible.
- Internal order-sum reconciliation passes on 1,332 days.
Cost visibility
Cost the recipes before touching a price.
Graph snapshot September 9, verified October 16, 2026.
- 127 sellable items, 206 recorded recipe components, 74 pack relationships examined.
- 37 partially costed dishes carried $458,323.46 of $646,754.04 historical item subtotal, 70.9 percent, so the first job was to complete those recipe costs before touching prices.
- 7 dishes fully costed; 83 with no priced component; $75,402.16 (11.7 percent) of POS revenue with no sellable mapping.
- The audit produced a ranked six-step action list: confirm recipes and packs for the 37, resolve unmapped POS items, refresh and reconcile, establish a count window, complete bank tie-outs, then run a measured reversible experiment.
Forecasting
Every Chronos-2 variant beat the baseline.
- Training record dated October 20, 2026: 14 configurations compared on the same eight seven-day origins, three seeds per learned neural family; 56 test days, July 7 to August 31, 2026.
- Every Chronos-2 variant beat the four-week baseline on point error with tighter bands; 80 percent coverage between 80.4 and 83.9 percent. The full table is on the platform page.
- Later rounds, October 2026: the knowledge-graph model 31.51 percent WAPE over 130 observed days in 19 weekly blocks; 728-day-context Chronos-2 30.92 percent; TimesFM 30.95 percent; retrained 728-day sales LoRA 30.94 percent, a 2.29-point improvement over its earlier run with a paired interval excluding zero; daily-issued one-day-ahead TimesFM 30.18 percent; complete weekly totals 13.73 percent WAPE over 17 weeks.
- Gradient boosting, October 16, 2026: 30.89 percent WAPE against 39.30 percent seasonal naive on 56 days; the nominal 80 percent band covered 85.71 percent.
- Live assistant run, July 2026: 25.56 percent against 36.95 percent on seven days; the 80 percent band covered six of seven, the 90 percent band seven of seven; two fresh-process refits produced byte-identical artifacts.
The restaurant model
Two states and the line between them.
Report dated September 11, 2026.
- Two stable states, 205 and 448 guests a week, separated by a break-even line at 242 guests a week ($10,912 a week).
- The 2024 to 2025 fall from the high state hindcast within 12 percent, including the absence of recovery after the shock.
- A $1,037 weekly fixed-cost cut, or $192 a week of acquisition spend at $50 per household, moves the line below the current base.
- Six hours a week where congestion costs referrals; the knee at 8.08 guests per server-hour.
- Capital and timing to cross: $20,242 holding full staffing over 40 weeks; commit before the season.
Learning
1,000 pairs, 700 trained, 300 held out.
October 21 to 22, 2026.
- 1,000 simulated restaurant and operator pairs: 200 restaurant families with five operator styles each. 700 pairs trained the policy and the world model; 300 were held out by whole family, 150 for calibration and selection, 150 for the final test. Source, protocol and checkpoints hash-pinned before the test was opened.
- 26-week episodes over 48 controls from 233 public state and history features; three collection rounds, five policy initializations, 47,215 weekly decisions in training; a second corpus of 15,921 decisions with 175 episodes each from frozen RL, a one-week planner, a four-week planner and uniform exploration.
- Red team: all 1,200 sealed episodes and 36,220 weekly transitions replayed exactly; every action, weekly profit, utility, cash value and terminal flag matched; cumulative profit reconciled to the change in equity. 1,522 artifact hashes, 300 checkpoint roundtrips and 2,002 tests passed.
- World model on held-out families: served-covers error 14.51 to 12.70 percent against the inherited mechanism, interval excluding zero; weekly profit prediction error $1,705 to $1,463; local adaptation 16.64 to 12.88 percent; 80 percent four-week band coverage 65 to 99 percent.
- Policy: the four-week planner is the executable reference and the learned policy earns each departure on held-out families. The learned hybrid finished within $3 per restaurant of the planner over 26 weeks on the 150 held-out pairs: 1,050 episodes, 26,275 operating weeks, a 450-checkpoint audit. Six policy versions, V7 through V12, each sealed before its test.
- Assistant evaluation: zero critical failures across 39 recorded episodes on independently authored owner tasks.
Data depth
Nearly five years of tickets in one graph.
- Ticket-level history across two POS systems from December 2021.
- 538 observed sales dates in the current graph; 14,176 source objects and 5,517,377 observations preserved; 14,527 nodes and 103,783 edges; 88.3 percent of sales mapped to sellables.
Engineering
2,120 tests. Deterministic replay.
October 20, 2026.
- 2,120 passing tests in the assembled repository.
- Import contracts: 4 kept across 289 files and 1,865 dependencies.
- Deterministic result hashes in fresh processes; a synthetic owner workflow produces an identical manifest on replay.
Changelog
Dated entries.
- Red team replayed all 1,200 sealed policy episodes exactly; the learned world model beat the inherited mechanism on held-out families; the learned hybrid finished within $3 per restaurant of the four-week planner.
- Policy campaign sealed on 1,000 simulated restaurant and operator pairs: 700 trained, 300 held out by whole family, 26-week episodes, 48 controls.
- Training record published: 14 configurations, three seeds, six LoRA adapters, three graph transformers; 2,120 tests pass.
- Recipe graph audit verified; gradient-boosting assessment recorded.
- Sales reconciliation audit: 36 of 36 checks to the cent.
- Restaurant model report: two states, tipping point at 242 guests a week.
- Graph snapshot: 127 sellables, 206 components, 37 dishes carrying 70.9 percent of sales.
- Live assistant forecast run with conformal intervals.
- First payroll period prepared and sent through the platform.
- Ticket-level export history begins in the current POS; the earlier POS history from December 2021 parsed into the graph.
See the evidence on your numbers.
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